Identifying a category before it exists — what cider and non-alcoholic drinks taught me

In more than forty years in the drinks industry, I have seen many trends emerge. Some disappeared as quickly as they arrived. Others gradually found their place and went on to become established categories.
Over time, above all, I have learned to be wary of jumping to conclusions.
A product can be niche because it does not meet a genuine need. But it can also be niche simply because the market is not ready yet.
I experienced this evolution with cider. Years later, I saw it again with non-alcoholic drinks.
In both cases, the lesson was the same: sometimes you need to look beyond the size of a market at a given moment to understand what it could become.

When I joined the family cidery in 1982, cider still occupied a relatively small place in the Belgian market.
Elsewhere in Europe, the picture was different. In Great Britain, Ireland and Spain, cider had a much more established drinking culture and a far more developed market.
Looking at those markets suggested that the category could evolve in Belgium too.
It was not a certainty. Still less a formula. But it was an interesting signal: what seemed niche in Belgium was not necessarily niche elsewhere.
In 1992, the family business was sold to the British group HP Bulmer. That period remains a defining experience for me: it taught me to look at a category not only for what it represents at a given moment, but also for what it could become.

I came across the same question a few years later with non-alcoholic drinks.
At the time, the market was still very limited. Yet the occasions were already there: some people wanted to share an aperitif, a meal or a convivial moment without necessarily drinking alcohol.
The range of products available was still limited, and the technical challenge was significant.
That was precisely what made the subject interesting.
Removing alcohol from wine or beer while retaining a balanced product is complex. Meeting a demand is not enough: you also have to be able to offer something consumers genuinely want to drink.
Over the years, we continued working on this challenge and deepening our knowledge of dealcoholisation and non-alcoholic drinks.
The market, meanwhile, evolved gradually.
Today, choosing not to drink alcohol on a given occasion has become much more natural. Drinking occasions are multiplying, expectations around taste are rising, and the range available has expanded considerably.
This evolution did not happen in a matter of months.
And that is probably one of the main lessons I take from it: when a category responds to a profound shift in consumer habits, sometimes you have to accept that it needs time.

After more than forty years in the drinks industry, I obviously do not have a formula for knowing which category will succeed tomorrow.
But there are certain signals I pay more attention to.

• A genuine need.
  I first look at whether the product addresses something consumers genuinely want to solve or improve. A marketing trend is not enough.
• A problem worth solving.
  When a product requires expertise, technology or a great deal of time to reach the expected level of quality, it creates a different dynamic from an innovation that is easy to replicate.
• What is happening in other markets.
  A category that is niche here may already be well established elsewhere. Looking at other countries, but also at other categories, can often help you get ahead in your own reading of the market.
• The ability to build for the long term.

  Not every shift happens quickly. Some take years before they become obvious. A family business has the ability to look beyond the next financial year.

With hindsight, it would be easy to tell only the stories of decisions that worked and give them a perfectly logical narrative.
The reality of entrepreneurship is, of course, different.
Some instincts prove right. Others do not. Some projects arrive too early; others take far longer than we imagined.
I have therefore never considered myself a visionary.
What interests me more is observation: watching how habits evolve, understanding which needs remain poorly served, and trying to build solutions that are good enough to last.
Cider taught me to look beyond our immediate market.
Non-alcoholic drinks taught me that a conviction can take a long time to find its market.
Today, with Maison 1895, we want to keep building businesses with that same attention to changing habits: understanding what is shifting, putting our expertise to work on products that make sense, and building for the long term.
Because ultimately, the categories that matter tomorrow are not always the ones making the most noise today.